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蒙古选后引发暴力抗议 已平息但影响政局稳定
IlovyGirl 发表于 2008-7-4 0:46:00 |
中国网 china.com.cn 时间： 2008-07-03 发表评论>>
2008 年6月29日，蒙古举行了四年一度的议会选举。初步统计结果显示，现任执政党蒙古人民革命党（人革党）赢得议会多数席位，取得单独组建政府的权力。由于选票统计等技术原因，正式结果将于7月14日之前公布。7月1日，由于对选举结果有所争议，蒙古部分民众在首都乌兰巴托举行了大规模暴力抗议活动。自 1990年蒙古政治转型以来，就议会选举结果爆发此种强度的暴力抗议事件实属罕见。
人革党赢得选举
大选结果初步公布，现任人革党赢得议会多数席位，取得单独组建政府的权力。此次选举由包括人革党、民主党等在内12个政党、1个政党联盟推选的候选人及诸多独立候选人共计356人争夺议会的76个席位。据初步统计，人革党获得44席，民主党获得27席。人革党摆脱了2004年议会大选时未过半数，被迫与反对党联合执政的窘境，如果选举结果得到确认，就可单独组建政府。
本次选举投票率较高，民生问题是主要关注点。蒙古议会选举法规定，如各选区投票率超过50%选举结果即合法。据蒙古选举委员会统计，全国投票率为74.3%，显示蒙民众对选举抱有较大期待。此次选举焦点是应对日益严峻的通胀压力，改善民生。2007年蒙古通胀率达到15.1%，最近调查显示，通胀问题已超过了失业和腐败，成为蒙古民众关心的首要问题。初选结果公布后，人革党主席巴雅尔称，“蒙古人民希望改善生活，走向富裕。在此方面，他们表达了对人革党的信任。”
选举过程相对平静。综合各媒体报道，大选过程总体进行有序，并无明显违法事件发生。俄罗斯国家杜马派驻蒙古的选举观察团称，未发现任何违法行为，选举程序民主，组织有序，非常成功。
人革党获胜在意料之中
选举制度改革有利于大党。蒙古此次采用新选举制度，改变了过去将全国分为76个选区、每个选区选取1名议员的小选区单一代表制，采用将全国分为26个选区，每个选区选取2名以上议员的大选区比例代表制。这压缩了小党的活动空间，具有广泛影响力的大党更容易在选举中获胜。初步统计，人革党与民主党两大党派几乎囊括了所有席位，其中人革党在9个选区完胜。而小党派及独立候选人所获席位有限。但此选举制度下，选民需在一张选票上选择多个候选人，从而有可能导致统计上的偏差失误。这是引发对选举结果争议的重要原因。
人革党竞选政策略胜一筹。过去3年，蒙古矿产业给政府财政带来了大笔盈余。民主党和人革党选前都宣称，若赢得选举，将向公众提供大笔回馈。民主党许诺向每个蒙古人提供860美元，而人革党则许诺提供1290美元。人革党甚至印制了“支票”发放给支持者，承诺胜选后将兑现该笔资金。人革党还提出了“国家恩惠”基金计划，使得普通居民能够从矿产资源开发中受益。对广大生活贫困的蒙古农牧民来说，人革党的政策更具吸引力。另外，人革党由于执政时间长，在农村地区影响力广泛，民主党等其他党派难以匹敌。人革党在地区选区获得了至少38席，即是其有力佐证。
总理巴雅尔是人革党获胜关键。现任总理、人革党主席巴雅尔反腐败坚决，坚持按照蒙古的条件接受外国矿产投资，且积极解决通胀问题，广受蒙古民众欢迎。很多人出于让巴雅尔继续执政的目的而选择人革党。
多个民主党派参与竞选，分散了投向民主党的选票。2004年议会选举中，民主党与其他党派组成“祖国—民主联盟”，结果与人革党平分秋色。民主党在此次选举中采取了单独竞选的策略。而众多小政党和独立候选人的参选使得民主党选票分流，在现行比例代表制下，间接起到了替人革党“助选”的作用。
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